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Hebrides' Eilidh NicDhòmhnaill's avatar

Thought provoking Michael.

Attributing all or most grocery inflation to SNAP expansion is a much bigger claim, and the data doesn’t clearly support that conclusion on its own. Multiple economists — including nonpartisan groups — point to a mix of factors during the COVID/post-COVID period:

Supply chain disruptions

Fuel and transportation costs

Labor shortages & wage increases

Global commodity price spikes (fertilizer, wheat, oil)

Corporate pricing power and profit expansion

Pandemic-era stimulus broadly increasing demand, not just SNAP

SNAP benefits did temporarily rise during the emergency, but even half a trillion in SNAP spending over several years is small compared to total U.S. grocery retail (~$1.3–$1.6 trillion annually). That doesn’t say there is no effect, just that inflation was likely driven by several forces, not only or primarily SNAP.

Fraud, waste, and black-market issues also exist — as in most large government programs — and stronger oversight or work requirements could be reasonable policy discussions. But millions of households, including working families and children, also avoid hunger because of SNAP.

Inflation rose globally among many democracies during and after COVID. A broad survey found that in the majority of 44 advanced economies, consumer prices in the first quarter after COVID were at least twice what they were at the start of 2020.

However, the U.S. inflation climb was steeper than many peers. By early 2021, U.S. core inflation began diverging upward faster than the average of comparable economies. By 2023 the gap had narrowed somewhat: cumulative core inflation in the U.S. became roughly comparable to many major peer economies (except a few like Japan).

While the U.S. economy did not just suffer price instability, it also saw robust output, consumption, investment, and employment growth compared with many peers.

Among large democracies and developed economies: some saw worse inflation spikes, others less — but almost all saw inflation significantly higher than pre-pandemic normal.

The issue for Trump in all of this seems primarily two-fold:

1. Voters tend to blame the incumbent when one's household economy is poor and affordability is an issue

2. Trump says that inflation-affordability is a democartic hoax, which voters will find difficult to align with higher priced grocery and other retail items. He could say inflation has come down rather than it doesnt exist. And to state the obvious, Inflation is also cumulative. Prices that rose during high-inflation years don’t go back down just because the rate slows. Households still pay more for many staples than they did before the surge and certainly continue to pay ever more currently, in part because of tariffs.

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